On May 12 the Supreme Commander in Chief of the Russian Federation Armed Forces, Vladimir Putin, received a report via videoconference from the Commander of the Strategic Forces Sergei Karakayev on the successful test of the Sarmat missile.
The Commander of Strategic Missiles, General Karakayev told Putin that “today at 11:15 a.m., the Strategic Missile Forces launched the latest heavy liquid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile, the Sarmat. The launch was successful. The launch mission has been accomplished. The test results confirmed the correctness of the design and technology solutions employed, as well as the missile system’s ability to meet its designated performance specifications. The Sarmat strategic missile system- a silo based, stationary intercontinental ballistic missile- is being developed to replace the Soviet -era Voyevoda- system. The Sarmat surpasses its predecessor in key combat characteristics, first of all in range, throw- weight, launch readiness, and countermeasure capabilities designed to confidently overcome both existing and future missile defense systems (…) The successful launch results would allow the first missile regiment equipped with the Sarmat system to be placed on combat duty in the Uzhur formation, Krasnoyarsk Territory, by the end of the year. The deployment of Sarmat launch systems will significantly increase combat capabilities of Russia’s land based strategic nuclear forces, enhancing their ability to engage targets and fulfill strategic deterrence objectives.” (!)
Russian President Putin congratulated the commander by commenting that since the USA “withdrew from the Anti- Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002, we were compelled- and I want to emphasize compelled- to reassess how to ensure our strategic security under new conditions and maintain strategic balance and parity. This is precisely why – let me stress this once again – Russia began developing advanced systems that have no equivalents in the world and are designed to penetrate both current and future missile defense systems(…) We are steadily implementing the nuclear forces development program adopted for this purpose.” He then listed the different steps that have been taken by Russia since the last twenty years, by emphasizing that “work on the Avangard intercontinental range missile system began in 2004, and it has been on combat duty since 2019. We subsequently introduced the Kinzhal medium – range hypersonic air- launched missile, which has been on combat duty since 2017. It is already being employed in the special military operation, while efforts continue to further improve it, including enhancing the precision of its conventional warheads.”
He further mentioned that the Oreshnik land based medium – range missile system, “which is also capable of carrying nuclear warheads, has been on combat duty since 2025. Work is also nearing completion on two systems powered by miniature nuclear units for propulsion; the unique “Poseidon unmanned underwater vehicle” and the unique “Burevestnik global -range cruise missile.” He qualified the “Sarmat” intercontinental ballistic missile as being “the most powerful missile system in the world, comparable in strength to the Voyevoda system previously in service, which, as mentioned earlier, was developed during the Soviet era. The combined yield of the payload is more than four times greater than that of any existing Western counterpart. Second and most importantly, the missile is capable of travelling not only along a ballistic trajectory but also along a suborbital one. Third it extends its operational range to over 35.000 kilometers while simultaneously doubling the accuracy. Finally, it makes the missile capable of penetrating any missile defense systems that are in service or in development at this time. The Sarmat will indeed be put on combat duty by the end of this year.”
“Danger of nuclear exchange” – strong warning by US political scientist Prof. Mearsheimer
US political scientist Prof. John Mearsheimer (known as “realist” in present US strategic thinking) in a discussion with Col. Daniel Davis in mid- May, emphasized the tremendous importance of Prof. Karaganov’s interview which the latter gave to the “Greater Eurasia Podcast”- moderator Prof. Glenn Diesen on May 10th. According to Mearsheimer, the shift in the Ukraine war, highlighted by the British and western instigated Ukraine invasion into Kursk on Russian soil (August 2024), together with the British instigated Ukrainian attack against Russia’s early nuclear warning system in Siberia (June 2025), and last not least the massive drone attack waves from Ukraine against Moscow during the month of May- again heavily encouraged and supported by the West- (GB, Germany and France), that all these attacks are signaling the beginning of a “new war escalation against Russia”, that could result in a nuclear exchange. Prof. Mearsheimer correctly underlined that even during Cold War- with a functioning nuclear deterrence doctrine both on the side of the US and S.U., such blatant provocations from a Western supported desperate Ukraine would have been totally “unthinkable.” And that this all the more confirms the correctness of Karaganov’s analysis who is arguing for an updated nuclear deterrence doctrine.
One should add to this that before the NATO Foreign ministers’ meeting in Helsingborg (Sweden, 21rst of May), NATO military leaders met in Brussels May 19th, to prepare the NATO Summit in Ankara in July 7.8.2026: among them NATO Military Chair Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, Allied Commander Europe, General Alexus Grynkiewich (SACEUR) and Admiral Pierre Vandier, who on May 19th gave a Press Conference, that demonstrates the self-blinding of NATO / European commanders. The line which since the May 9th parade in Moscow is by now repeated on a daily basis in the European, especially German press, is, that the recent massive drone attacks from Ukraine into Moscow and other Russian cities have ‘demonstrated’ that Ukraine is winning the upper hand in the war against Russia and may win. The NATO military leaders urged the need to more closely cooperate with Ukraine: And ‘learn’ from them, given the incredible “superiority”, as they claimed, that the Ukraine is showing on the battlefield by the deployment of “Artificial Intelligence” guided drones that are equipped with missiles, that within a few minutes can eliminate targets- infrastructure, civilian targets et al. They praised the AI based drone war as a unique weapon which has revolutionized the notions of “time” and “space.”
Provocative statement by Karaganov: How Russia will win the New World War
On May 10th the very influential foreign policy scholar and former advisor to Soviet and Russian leaders, Prof.Sergey Karaganov, analyzed Russia’s position in, what he describes as a “New World War”: He outlined a quite “provocative and controversial proposal for Russia to restore deterrence through the escalation of its nuclear doctrine, including the potential for ‘punitive’ strikes against European elites.” His analysis was developed more in depth in a May 12th article in the magazine “Russia in Global affairs, under the title: “A new World War: The Road to victory.”(!)
Both the interview as well as the Karaganov article in “Global Affairs” offer a rare insight into the hardline geopolitical thinking, that is currently shaping Russian foreign policy and its response to NATO’s involvement in the region”.
Being asked by Prof. Glenn Diesen, how certain developments during the Ukraine war have been assessed by the Kremlin, that had been “unthinkable during the Cold War”, such as the NATO countries’ backed incursion of the Russian city Kursk (August 2024) and the major Ukraine attack on Russia’ nuclear triad as well as the early radar warning system (June 2025), assisted then by Western Intelligence, Karaganov responded: “I have been criticizing my fellows in the government for tolerating western aggression for too long, hoping that we could find a solution.” He underlined that he is “returning back to what I have been proposing since ’23- ’24, and this time I hope my suggestion will come true, though not in full”: “We have to escalate and to punish this time our European enemies for conducting an all- out- war against Russia. (…) The problem is not exactly on the battlefields of Ukraine. The problem is that overall, the systemic change of world system brings about something like a Second World war. Actually, it has started at first in Ukraine, when Americans, willing to undermine Russia, unleashed it, and then Europeans greedily went into the abyss. But now it is also the Middle East and South East Asia, South Asia, and we see that this is a ‘Third World War’.” Glenn Diesen asked Karaganov to flash out his arguments that were used in the article ‘How to Win a World War’ , how he sees Russia’s position in this third world war and how Russia can win?” Karaganov responded: “The problem is that we have to win, and we have to win for two reasons. One is to stop the bloodletting war in Ukraine, which goes nowhere but towards more and more victims on our side, and ten times more, 5 times more, 3 times more on the Ukrainian side, etc. And it is endless, but sooner or later it would end.” But he also warned of a “horizontal escalation” of the conflict which began some months ago with the destabilization of South Eurasia, and the Middle East. “It is not about Iranian nuclear weapons. It is about destabilization of the huge area, starting from Maghreb and going down to Southeast Asia. And that they have started to do so. And we have to think how to stop that.”
The nuclear deterrence dilemma
According to Karaganov, “the advice to my government at this juncture is, that we should stop this war, at least in Europe, by going up the ladder of escalation. First, attacking by conventional weapons certain symbolic or logistical points on European soil. We do not need an inch of Europe, as you might understand. And then if they do not succumb, we should follow with nuclear strikes, relatively massive, with of course offering some kind of ultimatum.”
According to Karganov the European elites “have lost their minds as well as the sense of history. That’s why I proposed 3 years ago that “our military nuclear doctrine should concentrate not only on deterring attacks against Russia proper, but it should concentrate against punishing European elites, including with special munitions which would do away with their bunkers. (…) The European elites, which are senseless, which are irresponsible, should suffer first, not the European peoples.” He stated that while his view was in a minority three years ago, now “I am the voice of overwhelming majority, both in the military, in the political circles and in the society.”
In Karaganov’s view Europe and the US under Mr. Trump who “with all his jumps and jerks, looks to be a fine person, leads the country, as he had been told to, exactly in the direction of a historic ‘revanche.’ We will not allow it.” Karaganov also stressed that bilateral ties with Russia were not really going anywhere, that the so called “spirit of Alaska was a joke”.
Karaganov didn’t hide his criticism of the Russian government that – when the Kursk invasion happened- in summer 2024, did not act. “This is my criticism to my own government and my own political class. ( …) Minsk was a mistake and Alaska was not meaning anything… I do not trust the spirit of Alaska, though I hope that eventually Americans and Russian would agree on some rules of behavior toward each other, but Europeans would not be part of that game.”
Diesen transmitted during the conversation a question which Prof Mearsheimer had wanted to ask Karaganov, namely about the attack against Russia’s early warning radar system, used to detect a nuclear strike, something that would give Russia some time before a retaliatory strike. Diesen added that he had been informed by an FSB source, that this attack had been assisted by the British MI6.
The need to change the nuclear doctrine
Karaganov’s answer was very clear: “They are pushing to the limits. Russian government waited to avoid an all- out confrontation and I think we made a mistake. We should start to punish our enemies full- scale, hopefully without unleashing an all- out nuclear war. (…..) These crimes which they’ve committed which have been unheard of in the worst days of Cold War, should be punished. And there are many ways, and we are planning them. First of course, attacking, I mean, serious targets on the territory of Europe proper. (…) So, my advice to my compatriots, and I fully support it, is to escalate, first by striking with conventional weapons, symbolic and also important targets, like logistical centers or military bases. And then if they do not stop, we should go nuclear, with a series of limited strikes” (!). Karaganov essentially called for a “change (of) our policies on many directions. One, which I have not mentioned yet, is of course we have to change our doctrine of using nuclear weapons. And for that we should put the dictum that if we are attacked by a group of countries which have a preponderance over us in economic and technological and demographic potential, we not only have a right, we have an obligation to use nuclear weapons.
“The second proposal which I have pushed forward is that the Commander in Chief should delegate some of his power to the Commander- in Chief for European theatre, a general who would be supported with officers and generals with field experience and that he would be responsible for a possibility – one necessity- to use all means, including nuclear weapons against certain European countries which have unleashed and are continuing to unleash an aggressive war against Russia (!)”, which leads the European peoples into oblivion. He particularly emphasized that now “Germans, the British of course are playing their usual game- that is igniting war in Europe to weaken their continental neighbors. That has been their habit for several centuries……”
While according to Karaganov of course diplomacy should have a chance, he ended with a quite pessimistic outlook, by emphasizing that “hopefully we could somewhere along the road arrange a world of multipolarity, of mutual respect, and a world which is much more peaceful. But we are in for 20 years of war.”
Wiesbaden,18th of May 2026
