Wiesbaden, 1rst of March 2026
Given the dynamic of the presently unfolding events the preemptive war of aggression carried out by Israel and the US in the early morning hours of February 28th , this year’s annual meeting of the Munich Security Conference (Febr 13-15th ) entitled “Under destruction” seems to be lightyears away. The “phase change” which we are now witnessing with the war in Iran is a paradigmatic change with the potential for paving the way for a very dark economic future in Europe and the world, that might involve turbulences on the international oil and gas markets, as well as well as financial destabilizations and a series of regional conflicts in the Mideast.
Fact is that in the early morning hours of Febr 28th , President Trump at the side of Israel ordered a preemptive war against Iran, that within hours supposedly gave a major blow to Teheran and led to the killing of the country’s highest religious leader Ayatollah Khamenei, whose compound in Teheran was attacked. According to the well- known German Mideast expert Michael Lüders, this war will not end in a few days, but “redraw” the map of the entire Mideast for the coming years. US President Trump in a speech to the nation justified the war with the need for a “regime change” that should be brought about by the Iranian people. He hailed the “assassination “of the Ayatollah Khamenei, the highest religious leader of the Shia and qualified him as a “thug” and “evil” men. The president in order to cover up for this “violation of international law”, stated that the attack had to do with the “failed negotiations” in Geneva (despite the fact that the key mediator from Oman had stated that they „really advanced, substantially“). In response Iran has launched attacks against US bases in the Gulf states and against Israel. It should not surprise anyone that the European “coalition of the willing” UK, France and Germany have given their full support to the US -Israeli attacks. At the recent Munich MSC conference their respective leaders had gone out of their way to propitiate the US Secretary of State Mario Rubio for a renewed transatlantic partnership, and by trying to plead for the continuation of the war against Russia, arming Ukraine to its teeth. The common line of the speeches given by von der Leyen, Keir Starmer and Chancellor Merz in Munich was about the need to bring Russia into line, i.e. the need to defeat Russia by “coercive economic measures” (more sanctions) and defeat Russia before it will attack Europe in the next years; they alle respectively called for a putting together a major “rearmament efforts” and thus create a huge European defense-alliance.
In a “Foreign Affairs“ article “Why Iran will escalate” (Febr 24, 2026) written by Nate Swanson, Resident-Senior Fellow and Director of the Iran Strategy Project at the Atlantic Council between 2022 and 2025, who also served in spring and summer on the Trump’s Iran negotiating team, the US expert commented that: “If today’s conditions mean that an attack by the United States on Iran could result in unexpectedly deadly retaliation and a much longer and potentially damaging conflict for Washington (…) strategically speaking, Trump has no great reason to attack Iran (!). Teheran is a threat to Washington’s Middle East interests, yes, but it poses no immediate menace to the United States!“ Swanson underlined that the president is never satisfied with “quiet victories”. “As a result, he has made a major, flashier demand. Either the Iranian government agrees to a grand nuclear deal in which it gives up all nuclear enrichment of its missile program, or Washington attacks.” N. Swanson listed the main error which Trump has made by emphazing that Trump believes, he “can undertake a major operation with minimal consequences.” He added that according to a January Quinnipiac poll, 70% of Americans – and a majority of Republicans – oppose military intervention in Iran… Finally Teheran could target global oil flows and international shipping, sending energy prices up and creating a serious liability for Trump.” This is only one remark among many from the side of several strategic experts on the Mideast. In this context we should also take into account the recent US Supreme Court judgement, that had qualified Trump’s global tariff policy which he began in April 2025, as being “counter” to the US trade law. German US expert Josef Braml (former European director of the Trilateral commission) qualified this a major blow to Trumps “narcissist personality”, as are many of his recent actions. It is unclear which effect Trump’s drive for US hegemony based on Tariff coercion will have on the global economy and finances, not to speak about the effect on the average American citizens, that carries the load of higher prices and price inflation in the US, Braml commented.
Munich Security Conference Munich Conference – a lot of hot air
A brief look at some of the key speeches that were given at the MSC conference, for example the speech given by German Chancellor F. Merz, EU commission Chairwoman Ursula von der Leyen and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, illustrates the immense strategic dilemma that the EU had maneuvered itself into: on the one side there is the total hysteria concerning Russia which all of the European leaders want to defeat by a new defence and rearmament effort: the huge military spending, buying more weaponry from the US and engage in a common effort for defence and military innovation together with the Ukraine, that is aimed at sustaining the Ukraine war efforts as long as possible and at ultimately defeating Russia economically and militarily. On the other side they are almost torn apart by their constant criticism against the US government (the Europeans are all vehemently opposing the US efforts for bringing about peace in Ukraine). Given that the EU itself has no peace plan to offer neither for the Ukraine, nor for the Mideast, Europe is standing as a powerless observer at the sidelines, having no role to play, except applauding those operations that ensure a prolongation of the war in Ukraine and destroy any vision for a future European Security Architecture as well as bringing about peace in the Mideast. Nor do they understand the real economic and financial consequence that these wars will have on Europe and its respective European economies. What is also striking is that none of the speeches given in Munich reflected about the “real elefant” in the room: the new Multipolar World, expressed by BRICS and the Global South, that has replaced “rules based international order:”
Chancellor Merz underlined that we now have entered the era of great power politics that look for their respective sphere of influence. About Russia he said that Russian GdP is only 2 trillion Euro, while Europe is 10 times higher. He underlined as highest priority to strengthen NATO. “We thus support Ukraine in its brave resistance against Russian imperialism” … “We have imposed unforeseeable losses upon Russia (by further sanctions)”. And he spoke about partnerships that Germany tries to get with Canada, Japan, Turkey, Brazil and South Africa.
Von der Leyen spoke about Europe as a “European power house” for car manufacturing, aerospace, heavy machinery, AI, cyber -drones and space. She particularly underlined the project of the “defence innovation office in Kyiv, merging European scale with Ukrainian speed and ingenuity.” She proudly underlined the “interoperability” between NATO and the EU. British PM Keir Starmer centering his remarks on Russia’s appetite for aggression. “Nato has warned that Russia could be ready to use military force against the Alliance by the end of the decade, in the event of a peace deal in Ukraine which we are all working hard to achieve, Russia’s rearmament would only accelerate.” He emphasized that we “must build a stronger Europe and more European NATO, underpinned by a deeper link between the UK and the EU across defense, industry, technology, politics and the wider economy…. There is no British security without Europe and no European security without Britain. And he listed what UK could do in the war against Russia: “Delivering cutting edge drones with Ukraine. Developing next generation long range missiles with Germany, Italy and France. Working with all our allies to protect our northern flank. Doubling our deployment of British commandos in the Arctic. Take control of NATO’s Atlantic and Northern Command in Norfolk (Virginia). And transforming the royal navy by striking the biggest warship deal in British history with Norway. We are building a fleet of warships to hunt Russian submarines and protect undersea infrastructure. We want to replicate this level of collaboration with other allies across the High North and the Baltics. And finally enhance nuclear cooperation with France.”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio made a big plea for a West that is united by Trump and the alliance, while at the same time he strongly criticized the UN that “it could not solve the war in Gaza. Instead, it was American leadership that freed captives from barbarians nd brought about a fragile truce. It had not solved the war in Ukraine. It took American leadership and partnership with many of the countries here today just to bring the two sides to the table in search of a still elusive peace. It was powerless to constrain the nuclear program of radical Shia clerics in Teheran. That required 114 bombs dropped with precision from American B 2 bombers. And it was unable to address the threat to our security from a narcoterrorist dictator from Venezuela. Instead, it took American Special Forces to bring this fugitive to justice. …In a perfect world, all of these problems and more would be solved by diplomats and strongly worded resolutions. But we do not live in a perfect world, and we cannot continue to allow those who blatantly and openly threaten our citizens and endanger our global stability to shield themselves behind abstractions of international law(!!) which they themselves routinely violate. This is the path that President Trump and the United States has embarked upon. It is this oath we ask you here in Europe to join us on. It is this path we ask you here in Europe to join us again. It is an oath we have walked together before and hope to walk together again.” One should just remind ourselves that in the foreword of the NSS study, written by President Trump, he clearly emphasized, that the National Security Strategy is “a roadmap to ensure that America remains the greatest and most successful nation in human history, and the home for freedom on earth.”
China’s FM Wang Yi attacks the policy of the “law of the jungle”
The only realist speaking at the Munich conference this year was China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi. He stated almost the complete opposite of what State Secretary Rubio and the recent US strategic documents (on NSStrategy and Defence) are talking about. Wang Yi clearly warned that over the last year “the international landscape was marked by growing transformations and turbulence, and the law of the jungle and unilateralism went rampant. Humanity has come to a new crossroads for the cause of peace and development.” He mentioned Chinese President Xi’s Global Governance Inititiative (GGI) and stated that the priority is to “revitalize the UN” so as to improve “Global governance:” (…) The Founding of the UN was an important outcome of the victory of the World Anti -Fascist War….”
“Without the U.N., the world would revert to the ‘law of the jungle’ where the strong prey on the weak, and many small and medium sized countries would lose the multilateral foundation critical to their survival and development (…) Therefor what is imperative for us today is to recommit to the founding mission of the U.N., revitalize the leading role if the UN. Abide by the purposes of the U.N. Charter. and enhance the efficiency and efficacy of the UN system, so that the organization will be able to better adapt to the needs of the 21rst century and unleash renewed vitality,”
He added that “the reason why the international system is not functioning well enough lies not with the U.N. itself, but rather with a certain country to magnify differences and disagreements, put itself above everyone else, stoke bloc confrontation and even revive the Cold War mentality. All these have eroded the foundation of trust, worsened the atmosphere for cooperation and impeded the functioning of international institutions.”
“In reforming and improving global governance, multilateralism should always be upheld. The monopolization of global power by a small number of countries is unpopular. We live in a multipolar world and need to practice true multilateralism.
( …) To practice multilateralism, major countries in particular should lead by example. They should lead in pursuing cooperation, instead of conflict or confrontation. They should take the lead in observing rules, instead of applying double standards. They should take the lead in promoting equality, instead of imposing their will onto others. They should take the lead in encouraging openness, instead of resorting to self- serving unilateralism (…) The Global South is rising collectively … yet the “pressing task is to stop conflict and promote peace.” (…) As we speak there are still more than 60 conflicts dragging on unabated across the world, bringing traumatic suffering to the affected populations,” Wang Yi complained. “We should promote peace through talks and oppose attempts to escalate the situation. “In Gaza a two-state solution is still not there.” And “the situation in Iran has a direct impact on peace in the Middle East. Relevant parties should act with prudence and avoid creating new conflicts. On the Ukraine crisis, “the door to dialogue is finally open. All parties concerned should seize the opportunity to reach a comprehensive, durable and binding peace agreement, remove the root causes of the conflict and bring about a lasting peace and stability in Europe. On Venzuela, the red line of international rule of law must not be crossed, and the principle of state sovereignity must be upheld. China will be a reliable force fot stability and a progressive force in history. “
